Week 2 College Football Picks for Psychos & AP Poll Thoughts
GREAT FIRST WEEK OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL, Y’ALL!
While last week didn’t match my Week 0 perfection, I’m glad the picks I made didn’t entirely disappoint… except for North Carolina playing like a Pop Warner team.
BAYLOR VS. #17 SMU - 12 PM
It is insane that SMU is only favored by a field goal against a Baylor team that was completely dominated by an Auburn team that somehow (more on this later) remains unranked ahead of this week. While the 38-24 score makes it appear that Baylor put up a good fight, the Bears played on their heels the entire game as Auburn controlled the pace and ball for most of the game.
SMU isn’t going to let Baylor figure things out on the fly.
Mustangs QB Kevin Jenning returned to SMU presumably to handle some unfinished business. SMU’s loss in the College Football Playoff to Penn State didn’t sit right with anyone in Dallas, and they’re poised to make another run in the wide-open ACC.
Both teams have their issues, but SMU is also playing for something else: history.
In the last 40 years, SMU has lost every meeting it’s had with the Baylor Bears. We’re talking about a losing streak that stretches back to 1986, when the Southwestern Conference was still in existence. There are a lot of demons for SMU to exorcise as it returns to the college football mainstream and this losing streak can come to an end easily.
I’m hammering SMU at -2.5 and probably escalating up to SMU by a touchdown and possibly by 10 points. If Baylor couldn’t figure out Auburn, I don’t think they’ve had enough time to fix their big issues to chase the Mustangs down.
South Florida VS #13 Florida - 4:15 PM
South Florida brought the thunder against then No. 25 Boise State, blowing out the Mountain West champions, 34-7. However, the Bulls head into their matchup against No. 13 Florida as 18-point underdogs. I don’t know how to feel about that.
On one hand, Billy Napier’s Gators are trending upwards, but so is South Florida. If anything, this feels like more of a condemnation of Boise State than anything. Perhaps oddsmakers are not putting too much stock into that big win.
This is a straightforward call for me. I’m taking USF covering at +17.5, possibly teasing it down to +14.5. While Florida certainly has the pedigree of a team that could trounce USF, the Bulls throw haymakers all game. We’ve seen the Gators get knocked down and refuse to get up before. USF keeps the close, even if the Gators claim the W.
Tulane VS South Alabama - 7 PM
Tulane is too good to be an 11-point favorite against South Alabama.
No way.
Tulane all day.
#12 Arizona State VS Mississippi State - 7:30 PM
Another put up or shut up game. Arizona State is a year removed from their Cinderella run through the College Football Playoff, but it remains to be seen if they have the same magic this year.
Mississippi State has been good in…. years. However, under head coach Jeff Lebby, it’s clear that the Bulldogs are a competent football program once again.
Sometimes you have to take big swings, which is why I’m inclined to take Mississippi State’s moneyline in an upset. It’s not that I don’t think the Sun Devils can’t win; it’s just that Mississippi State has nothing to lose.
#15 Michigan VS #18 Oklahoma
The marquee matchup of Week 2! Finally!
Coming into this collegiate corner, I realized I had my notes wrong, thinking No. 15 Michigan was favored by 4.5 points. That's not the case. What's actually happening is that Oklahoma, No. 18 in the country, is favored by four and a half points.
I get why that’s the case, especially coming off the last two years. Let's be clear, this is not Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines. This is Sherrone Moore's Wolverines. It's not the same squad. But Bryce Underwood has looked like a five-star recruit so far, considering his limited play.
So, to me, there's an upside to betting on Michigan to cover, or even flipping that money line and saying Michigan by a field goal, or at least just taking their money line. Currently, they're sitting at +164, which feels safe.
But then on the other side of the ball, we have Brent Venables and transfer QB John Mateer and RB Jayden Ott. So, Oklahoma has weapons.
This game is really evenly matched. And if you look at the AP poll, this is kind of where the rubber meets the road for a lot of these “teen teams.”
It's interesting. It's tough because Michigan's hype was real last year, but it didn't live up to expectations, finishing the season unranked. They did beat the soon-to-be National Champions at Ohio Stadium, so it’s not like the entire season was a loss. They come into this season in a bit of a mid-tier slot. Week 1, you can't really tell much, but it's going to be kind of one of those exciting games that really sets the tone for the rest of their season.
Oklahoma also has a little bit of that opportunity to set its feet, too. Part of me wants to say that I'll live bet this game because if Oklahoma gets a sucker-punched and the odds shift, I might say, “Okay, well, Oklahoma is a team that doesn't really like the taste of blood in their mouth. So let's see if they can bounce back, since Michigan doesn't seem like a team that would be able to run it up.”
But I’m torn, I truly don't know. I think there's some value in Michigan, possibly even if they cover by plus four and a half, which is a bit tough. Can they keep it close to within a field goal? I’m not sold, fully.
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