Week 1 College Football Picks for Absolute Psychos
My friends, we have survived the wasteland that is Spring and Summer and have arrived hungrier than ever for collegiate competitions on a Saturday afternoon. If you stay quiet enough, you may hear the wind whisper, “What kind of mythical powers does a Sun Devil have?"
In this world, where rivalries have divided some fans for almost a century, a Saturday afternoon is sacred. Colors are worn with pride, voices are lost, cheering for one side with all your might, and marching bands serenade us with bombastic fight songs intertwined with medleys of Les Misérables and “Kashmir” by Led Zeppelin.
The 2025 College Football Season has arrived. Let us rejoice and be glad!
Now, let’s get degenerate and talk about these matchups.
#1 Texas vs. #3 Ohio State - 12 PM
Current Odds: Ohio State -1.5, O/U 47.5 points
BANGER. An absolutely scintillating beginning to the college football season as we get a rematch of the 2024 Cotton Bowl. Last time Texas and Ohio State met, the Buckeyes soundly beat the Longhorns, 28-14, on their way to the 2024 National Championship.
Also notable from the last time they met: both teams had different quarterbacks.
The Arch Manning Era begins in Texas, something most college football fans have been waiting for since his commitment to UT. He’ll face a tough Ohio State defense in one of the toughest environments in college football at Ohio Stadium. Arch has his work cut out for him, but it’s not like he’s afraid of the spotlight.
On the other sideline, there are more questions about how Ohio State’s National Championship defense will pan out. Ryan Day’s tenure as head coach has been a rollercoaster ride to say the least, but winning the Natty has quelled calls for his termination. That said, Day’s Buckeyes have been known to drop a big game or two. Last season, the Buckeyes lost two games: one to No. 3 Oregon at Autzen Stadium and the other to unranked Michigan at home.
That said, this game is a toss-up in my mind. I’m leaning towards taking the Texas moneyline or teasing out the line to Texas by a field goal, but this game has live betting written all over it. With the line sitting at -1.5, it’s clear that Vegas isn’t sure how this will shake out either. So for me, I’m sitting back seeing how things start. But if I had to take a side, it’s the Texas moneyline and teasing the points to Texas -2.5.
NorthWestern vs. Tulane - 12 PM
Current Odds: Tulane -6, O/U 45.5 points
Quick note about this game, because this isn’t a “marquee matchup.”
Tulane i's a very fun football program to watch; Northwestern is not. Tulane’s favored in this game by only six points. That’s insane. Tulane -6 all day. Book it.
#8 Alabama vs. Florida State - 3 PM
Current Odds: Alabama -13.5, O/U 56.5 points
Neither one of these two schools had a season to remember last year.
Alabama’s first season without Nick Saban in the headset went about as bad as it could have. Truly. Getting upset by Vanderbilt, losing to No. 9 Tennessee, then getting your playoff dreams squashed by unranked Oklahoma was an awful experience for the Crimson Tide faithful. A bounce-back has to be on the menu for 2025, and Florida State is a great punching bag to get out some of that lingering frustration.
As for the Seminoles, 2025 was abysmal. Mike Norvell’s team was the laughing stock of the college football world. Finishing the season at the bottom of the ACC with a 2-10 record is rock bottom. It has to be. The season before, Florida State was one game and a significant injury away from heading to the College Football Playoff. So there has to be some fight left in this program… right?
Look, all I’m saying is that Bama’s a 13.5-point favorite in this game, which feels low. That leads me to believe that Vegas has some faith in Florida State keeping this game from becoming an insane blowout. Personally, I think you could make a case for betting on Florida State to cover… and that’s what I’m gonna do.
#9 LSU vs. #4 Clemson - 7 PM
Current Odds: Clemson -4, O/U 57.5 points
Another BANGER.
LSU and Brian Kelly have not had the best luck in these primetime opening week games. In fact, the Tigers haven’t won a season opener since 2019 when they went 15-0 on their way to a National Championship thanks to Coach Ed Orgeron, and future NFL superstars like Heisman winner Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase.
Those guys aren’t walking through the door on Saturday night. Instead, LSU will once again roll with Grant Nussmeier under center as Brian Kelly’s Tigers look to find a spark to ignite a season that hopefully ends with a trip to the SEC Championship. But a lot of doubts remain.
Fun Fact: There are only three active college football coaches who have won a National Championship. The first is Ryan Day at Ohio State, followed by Kirby Smart with his Georgia Bulldogs, and the final member of this elite club is a man who may be the most chaotic human being I’ve ever witnessed.
Dabo Swinney.
Swinney’s Clemson Tigers stumbled their way into the ACC Championship thanks to two things: playing in a terrible conference and an offense led by Cade Klubnik. The Clemson signal caller is also an early favorite to win this year’s Heisman Trophy, so the bar is being set high for his senior season. However, he’s not alone in receiving preseason hype.
As it stands currently, Klubnik is projected to be joined by defensive tackle Peter Woods and defensive end T.J. Parker in the top 10 of next year’s NFL draft. As his offensive weapons, Klubnik has Antonio Williams and Bryant Wesco Jr. coming back after massive seasons.
So, where does this game land, betting-wise?
This is one of those games where I’m adjusting the line to reflect how I see things unfolding. I like Clemson by a touchdown, more than I like LSU covering the four points they’re getting now. Even at -180, I don’t hate the Clemson moneyline. I feel like this game is Clemson’s to lose, with all of their returning talent.
Plus, I’m all in on Dabo Swinney this year.
