Week 3 College Football Picks for Psychos: Mistakes Everywhere
Welcome back to Collegiate Corner here at the IR Debate Club!
We had a massive week last Saturday, and I’m looking to keep things rolling, so let’s dive right in!
#12 CLEMSON vs. GEORGIA TECH - 12 PM
Clemson’s in trouble. Perhaps everyone was wrong when the preseason rankings slotted the Tigers in at No. 4. Or, perhaps Clemson has yet to show voters and fans this team is different from last year’s team, that they truly are the team to beat in the ACC.
Plenty of teams that dropped their season opener say bounce back Week 2 performances, but Clemson was one of the few to drop in the AP Poll, falling from No. 8 to No. 12. The reason? Letting Troy walk all over them in the first half of their Week 2 matchup. Yes, Clemson would go on to win the game, but it was not pretty for the Tigers.
Now, Dabo Swinney’s Tigers face a Georgia Tech team that can beat you, whether you expect it or not.
The Yellow Jackets, led by former Texas A&M QB Haynes King, have a problem with consistency. King can beat you with his legs and his arm, but beyond their signal caller, Georgia Tech doesn’t have much depth. One Saturday, they’ll look like an unstoppable force; another Saturday, they’ll look like a vastly outmatched High School team. This game gives King and the Yellow Jackets a chance to prove they deserve to be ranked by beating a wounded Clemson Tigers.
If we’re looking for value in this game, taking the Georgia Tech moneyline is where you can find it. However, while Georgia Tech can be slippery in big games, taking Clemson to win at -170 feels like a safer bet.
Last season, Clemson opened their season with a loss to Georgia, 34-3, and a win over Appalachian State, 66-20. Their week three matchup saw the Tigers battle NC State to win, 59-35. Clemson would lose two more games that season on their way to another ACC title. This is where Clemson stops their slide and turns on the jets.
#6 GEORGIA vs. #15 TENNESSEE - 3:30 PM
First off, Go Dawgs.
Secondly, Go Dawgs.
Thirdly, this is one of the sneaky best games of the year every season. For some reason, when Tennessee plays at home against a big rival, it feels like a bowl game. Shout out to Neyland Stadium. This is shaping up to be another battle of the behemoths, as both Tennessee and Georgia come into this game looking to make a statement.
Both schools saw their QBs leave in the transfer portal, albeit one more publicly than the other. With Carson Beck and Nico Iamaleava playing outside of the SEC, both the Vols and the Dawgs are rolling with rosters that feel untested, but not off the field.
Vols QB Joey Aguilar had zero offers coming out of high school, after stints at two junior colleges in California, Aguilar committed to Appalachian State. In his two seasons for the Mountaineers, he broke multiple single-season records and found himself within the top 10 all-time passers for the school. After battling for his chance to play in big games, Aguilar isn’t likely to pass up the opportunity to beat Georgia.
On the Georgia sideline, Kirby Smart took the time needed to address some shortcomings of his team in 2024 and then went to work in the transfer portal. Snagging Zachariah Branch from USC was clutch, adding to Gunnar Stockton’s offensive arsenal. Returning players like tight end Oscar Delp and running back Nate Frazier keep the core of this offense together, but it’s not like last year was a walk in the park.
Georgia hasn’t been the same dominant force it was when Nakobe Dean, Jalen Carter, and Nolan Smith led the Dawgs to two National Championships. This is not that team.
So where do we stand? Similar to the Clemson/Georgia Tech situation, but there’s a catch. Currently, Georgia opens as a 4-point favorite. That line will move closer to kickoff. Unless you want to have some juice for this game, I’d suggest live betting it. These SEC games tend to stay close until the last second. If you want that kind of sweat, go for it.
Moreover, if you want to take a big swing, roll the dice on the Tennessee moneyline. This game will see big momentum swings. Keep that in mind.
PITT vs. WEST VIRGINIA - 3:30 PM
Backyard Brawl! Pitt is favored in this game by a touchdown. West Virginia just lost a game against Ohio. Not Ohio State, but Ohio University. I have ZERO faith in the Mountaineers to beat Pitt. I’m taking the points for Pitt all day.
#18 SOUTH FLORIDA vs. #5 MIAMI - 4:30 PM
I rarely gloat about my picks, mainly because it’s about staying above .500. Sports betting is about trying to win more than you lose, which can be difficult. South Florida's win over the Gators was a massive win for both the program and my bankroll. So, the Bulls have a soft spot in my heart moving forward.
That said, Miami looks to be a decent football team in 2025. Sure, their Week 1 matchup was a nail-biter in classic Mario Cristobal fashion. Still, it was also against a tough Notre Dame team, which is coming off a National Championship appearance.
Will I bet the USF moneyline? I’ll sprinkle it. Do I think USF can keep it within 17 points? I do. Miami is a better football team than the Gators, who USF beat last week. However, USF wasn’t playing its best football either.
I hate being the kind of guy who has a fallback reason, but this one seems to be popping up a lot more: Miami has more to lose than USF, who just this week were ranked No. 18 in the country, bouncing a second-ranked team out of the top 25. Will Miami be their third victim? That’s the +575 question.
The 7 PM Kickoffs
Listen, all of these games have their finer points, but there’s one thing they have in common: a 7-ish point spread. There’s a lot of room for speculation as to why Vegas has marked these games as such, but I’d like to think these are all mistakes.
ARKANSAS vs. #17 OLE MISS - 7 PM
Ole Miss at -7.5 against Arkansas feels like a direct challenge to Lane Kiffin’s Rebels. Even odder is that the line for this game has been really moving, not in favor of Ole Miss.
The Rebels began as 7.5-point favorites, then 7-point favorites, and landed at 6.5 points, which I actually think is correct. Why? Arkansas is slippery.
Listen, I've seen Arkansas teams that look like they put on their uniforms for the first time that day. But I've also seen Arkansas show up and absolutely roundhouse kick other SEC teams. So, Arkansas is definitely a trap. It's 100% a trap game for Ole Miss.
That said, these odds feel a little bit like a direct challenge to Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin. They've been hovering around the latter half of the rankings, at No. 17, No. 20, and No. 22. I think this is similar to Clemson, but also not identical to Clemson. This is their first game where they can really show up and show off. So the further this line moves, the more I'm intrigued by it.
FLORIDA vs. #3 LSU - 7:30 PM
This one has to be a mistake. It's crazy to me that No. 3 LSU is only getting seven points against Florida.
Florida has proven to us, especially in the Billy Napier era, that they're not as good a football team as we want to think that they are. They're just not. Add in the fact that Billy Napier is still retaining play-calling duties, and I’m starting to feel the problems in Gainesville can only be fixed by systemic shifts.
So for me, I'm hammering LSU -3. I understand that LSU has a tough record going into The Swamp, but this can be an in-conference statement game for LSU, and I think that even LSU as 7-point favorites is frankly quite rude.
LSU -3? ALL. DAY.
#16 TEXAS A&M vs. #8 NOTRE DAME - 7:30 PM
Another game that I think is a bit interesting, which also includes a seven-point favorite, is No. 16 Texas A&M squaring off against No. 8 Notre Dame.
Notre Dame had a tough loss in their season opener, but that loss isn’t weighing as poorly as Florida’s or Alabama’s. That’s a good thing! Getting beaten by good teams is a good thing? IT sure is!
On the other sideline, Texas A&M is an interesting football school with bipolar swings over the last few seasons. The Aggies, who are NOT a cult, play a different style of ball. However, like Arkansas, I’ve seen both sides of the Aggies’ coin. Too many times, I’ve seen Texas A&M unable to adjust mid-game. So, in my opinion, this feels like a game where Notre Dame jumps out in front and the Irish stay ahead of the Aggies. Taking Notre Dame by a touchdown feels like the obvious choice.
The moneylines for this game aren't worthwhile unless you have a good feeling about Texas A&M. We've seen the Aggies come out swinging in these types of marquee matchups. Personally, I think Notre Dame has something to prove. So, I’m trusting Marcus Freeman to get the win.
VANDERBILT vs. #11 SOUTH CAROLINA - 7:45 PM
South Carolina -3? That’s a head scratcher.
I don't get it. I don't get it. I don't get it.
I like South Carolina. I like South Carolina as the 11th-best college football team in the country. What we've seen from them so far hasn’t been the Gamecocks living up to their full potential. I believe in LaNorris Sellers.
Sure, Vanderbilt is really turning around as a program and has a track record of keeping things close in recent seasons. This is not the awful Vandy of years past. This is a new, revitalized Commodores football program.
All that said, South Carolina being favored by just a field goal is ABSOLUTELY wild.
This game opened with South Carolina as 6-point favorites, then dropped to 4-point favorites, and now it's just a field goal? To me, that’s psychotic. If anything, this has to be bulletin board material for Beamer and the Gamecocks.
For this game, I'm hammering the spread, the moneyline, everything for South Carolina.
This is a game where I feel excellent about adjusting the line and taking South Carolina by a touchdown.I don't really understand what the bookmakers are thinking. Maybe last year, after Vandy had some juice following their Alabama upset, but I don't fully buy it.
